Thousands of cases of measles have been recorded in Russia in recent months – this is many times higher than the usual figures. Experts emphasize that the increase in morbidity is not unusual, but they urge not to relax control measures and recommend vaccination for those who are not vaccinated if there is suspicion of contact with a patient.
On April 12, students at the Moscow State University of Oil and Gas were sent on an unscheduled vacation, and then, one by one, other universities in the capital, such as Polytechnic, MAI, and MIPT, began to introduce remote learning. On May 2, MSU announced remote learning for three faculties on the Lenin Hills. All schedule changes are limited to three weeks – exactly the maximum incubation period of the measles virus.
The incidence of the disease is increasing in the regions of Russia. On May 3, authorities in the Krasnodar region reported that 31 cases of measles had been identified since the beginning of the year (compared with six cases for the entire previous year). According to RBK, citing the Rospotrebnadzor department in Samara Region, 118 people fell ill from January to March. In St. Petersburg, 31 cases of measles were registered by mid-spring, compared with only isolated cases in the previous two years. In mid-April, Rospotrebnadzor recorded an increase in incidence in half of Russia’s regions. According to the head of the agency, Anna Popova, more than 1,000 cases of infection had been recorded by April 26. This is more than 10 times the total number of measles cases detected in 2022.
There is no data on how many diseases have led to restrictions at Moscow universities, but it is known that alarm was raised at MSU due to suspicion of measles in a single student. “Measles is the most contagious viral infection that exists in the human population,” emphasizes Natalia Turaeva, head of the laboratories for the prevention of viral infections at the Moscow Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after Gabrichevsky of Rospotrebnadzor of the Russian Federation. “The infectivity index is almost 100%. All people who are susceptible to measles become ill on contact. That is why it is difficult to control measles – you only need a little contact with an infected person to get sick. That is why the anti-epidemiological measures are so active. We have 72 hours. As soon as a person is diagnosed with “suspected measles,” vaccination of “contacts” in the hotbeds of the disease begins immediately, and the source of the infection is isolated.
Increases in measles incidence are cyclical. Strong spikes in infection statistics were observed in Russia in 2014 and 2019 (with 4,711 and 4,491 reported cases, respectively). “During an outbreak, part of the population becomes infected and develops immunity. Some countries conduct “clean-up” vaccinations-vaccinating those who were not vaccinated in time but can still be vaccinated to prevent immediate infection. The immune layer is strengthened and the outbreak stops,” explains the dynamics of this process Antonina Oblasova, the head of the nonprofit organization “Collective Immunity”. “Then there is a gradual accumulation of people without immunity (at least through the birth of new children). The population becomes a feeding ground for the virus, and when it comes into contact with these susceptible individuals, they inevitably become infected, and a new cycle begins.”
The existence of a layer of anti-vaxxers, who are convinced that it is not worthwhile to be vaccinated against measles and that this disease is not as dangerous as doctors claim, adds nuance to the epidemiological picture. We explain quickly, simply, and clearly what happened, why it matters, and what will happen next. Episodes The end of the story: Advertising podcasts. Even before COVID-19, the BBC had extensively analyzed the views and behavior of such people in Russia. Despite the fact that Russia as a whole has a decent vaccination coverage against measles and the incidence of the disease, even at its peak, is not as high as in many other countries, skeptical attitudes towards vaccination in the parental environment are encountered, resulting in many children (according to the national vaccination schedule, they should receive the measles vaccine twice – at the age of one year and six years) being unprotected against this infection.
Russian authorities are confident that the consequences of vaccine skepticism are statistically negligible. “In Russia, when it comes to children, the vaccination rate is 97%… practically everyone is vaccinated,” Anna Popova, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, said in a televised broadcast on April 26. According to data released in mid-April by the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-being (RPN), on average 95% of the population in Russia is vaccinated against measles. It is difficult to verify the accuracy of the data used by medical officials.
Problems with COVID vaccination in Russia have sparked discussions about how easy it is to create a fake vaccination certificate if you do not want to vaccinate yourself or your child. Until recently, there was not even a record of vaccinated individuals in federal computer databases. “We more often than others require a certificate of vaccination against measles, which is a danger in terms of infectivity and requires quarantine in case of an outbreak. That’s why people fake measles,” said Valentin Kovalyov, an infectious disease specialist at the St. Petersburg Children’s Scientific and Clinical Center for Infectious Diseases of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia. “I think this 97% has nothing to do with reality,” says Antonina Oblasova of the NGO “Collective Immunity”. “If it were 97%, there would be no outbreaks, because it is highly unlikely that the remaining 3%, scattered around the country, would have encountered each other. There would only be isolated imported cases. Today’s situation is proof that statistics in our country are unreliable. And this is the fault of the system, not of individual institutions. Natalya Turaeva of the Gabrichevsky Institute is confident that the ministry’s statistics are accurate and emphasizes that in emergency situations, unvaccinated people often change their perspective. “When there is excitement, people are more willing to respond to vaccination, we see this in the way people start to get vaccinated in disease hotspots,” she says. “You explain to them, ‘Your child can get sick and get very sick, but if we vaccinate them now, there is a 95% chance that your child will not get sick. And people readily agree. In disease hotspots, more than 70% of the eligible population (those who have not been vaccinated) are vaccinated. However, vaccine skeptics do not give up anywhere – not even when their relatives, friends and colleagues fall ill. Recently, Zalimkhan Omariev, the head of the Dagestan branch of Rospotrebnadzor, reported that even against the backdrop of a growing number of cases, it is not possible to convince fellow citizens to get vaccinated urgently. “In fact, it is not even about the number of cases, although this is an important feature, but rather about the fact that people often do not get in touch with each other during the anti-epidemic measures and refuse to be vaccinated,” Omariev complained in an interview with RIA Novosti.
The BBC’s interviewees agree that sanctions against Russia will not affect measles vaccination, as the absolute majority of vaccinations are carried out with domestic medicines. However, a shortage could occur in the event of an outbreak.
Overall, domestic vaccine production is sufficient when there is no peak demand. But when an outbreak begins, demand rises sharply and there are immediate shortages,” says Antonina Oblasova. “It is impossible to simply produce more batches of vaccine, just as it is impossible to simply grow an extra potato crop if it was not planted in the spring. The situation is further complicated by the dishonest media, which gives a platform to medically illiterate people who claim that regular vaccination against measles is necessary. This is complete nonsense. Two measles vaccinations are required for life. Fearing a shortage, doctors in some regions are limiting vaccinations to those who are unvaccinated against measles and live in areas with outbreaks. For example, E1.ru recently reported that the vaccination of healthy unvaccinated people in Ekaterinburg has been temporarily suspended. “At the moment, the vaccine in the city is reserved for emergency use in cases of measles. In the current situation, it is necessary to have a supply that will allow a smooth mass vaccination if needed,” said the Regional Center for Public Health and Medical Prevention to the publication.
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