Scientific Digest: Life without end? Do we have a chance, say scientists?

The science news of the week: What age is given to a person? Debates on this topic have been going on since ancient times. Jews, for example, traditionally wish to live to 120, and many scientists tend to believe that 120-150 is perhaps the limit (though practically unattainable for most people today, but still real). The current longevity record holder is Frenchwoman Jeanne Louise Calment, who died in 1997 at the age of 122. Despite talk of a possible fake (oh, those envious old people), experts confirmed its age in 2019 based on undeniable facts. So far, no one has been able to achieve this (the closest candidate, Japan’s Kané Tanaka, 118 years old, is still very much alive for her age).

But according to a new study (published in the journal Royal Society Open Science), there is theoretically no upper limit, even if the chances of becoming a supercentenarian are extremely low. As scientists say, although the risk of death generally increases with age (who would have thought!), there comes a moment when it levels off and remains constant, meaning that with each passing year it becomes 50-50 (either you die or you don’t). We explain quickly, simply, and clearly what happened, why it matters, and what will happen next. The number of offers should remain: episodes. End of story. Podcast advertising. After 110, every year you live is like a coin flip, heads or tails,” explains the study’s author, Anthony Davison, professor of statistics at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL). Heads – you’re lucky, you’ll live to see your next birthday, and tails – you won’t live to see your next birthday.

Before coming to these conclusions, Swiss scientists carefully analyzed the recently released International Database of Lifespan, which contains information on 1,100 supercentenarians from 13 countries. They are divided into supercentenarians (those who reached 110) and semi-supercentenarians (those who managed to reach 105). In addition, Italian statistical data for the period 2009-2015, which included information on all individuals over the age of 105, was also examined. “Any study of superlongevity, whether for biological or statistical purposes, involves some degree of extrapolation,” Davisson notes. “We were able to prove that if there was a limit, we could calculate it, but there isn’t.” The scientist admits that theory is not yet practice, and those who have made it into the statistics of long-lived individuals are lucky, and even at the age of 110, the chances of reaching 130 are one in a million – not completely impossible, but extremely unlikely. Davidson remains optimistic, however, and believes that in the next century, more and more people will fall into the category of super-centenarians, living past the age of 130.

I hasten to reassure all those who are anxiously awaiting a global apocalypse, and at the same time delight fans of the movie “Armageddon” (yes, the one where Bruce Willis saves the Earth from a rogue asteroid by detonating it with a nuclear warhead). A new study (published in Acta Astronautica) has confirmed that the strategy of defending against extraterrestrial invaders with nuclear weapons can work, even if the target is detected at the very last moment (about a year before the expected attack). However, there is one important condition: the size of the celestial body coming toward Earth should be relatively small. Using computer simulations, researchers calculated the impact of a one-megaton nuclear warhead on an asteroid 100 meters wide. Five possible orbits of the asteroid and impacts at different times of its approach to Earth were analyzed, ranging from six months to one week before the inevitable collision. It turned out that the optimal time was two months before the approach – in this case the rain of deadly fragments decreased to 0.1% of the initial mass. With a larger mass of the asteroid, there would still be a chance to minimize the impact, but that would require a preemptive strike six months in advance. Great result, but scientists still consider it a last resort that they don’t want to rely on. “One of the problems with assessing such a strike is that you have to model the trajectories of all the resulting fragments,” explains physicist Patrick King of Johns Hopkins University in Maryland. “But if we choose a nuclear strike as a possible strategy for reflection, we have to do it.”

Computer modeling of an asteroid impact in the Spheral program In fact, it is really difficult to calculate where the numerous fragments will fly, so the researchers used the specially developed program Spheral, which calculates where gravitational and other forces will carry all these “shrapnel”. A miscalculation can be very costly – a large asteroid can break up into several smaller but still very dangerous fragments that can rain down on the Earth like a fiery shower, not just in one specific area, but in many locations. That is why NASA and other space agencies continue to invest significant resources in planetary defense systems, especially early warning capabilities that allow us to detect potentially dangerous objects as they approach Earth. After all, the more time we have to prepare for such an unpleasant encounter, the better our chances of diverting an asteroid from its deadly course.

Who could afford a luxury toilet 2,700 years ago?

Israeli archaeologists have made an unexpected discovery in the heart of Jerusalem. Excavations there have been going on for two years, but only now have they stumbled upon a luxury-class toilet intended for the elite who lived 2,700 years ago. “We had previously found personal toilets in Jerusalem, and only in a few places in Israel,” says archaeologist Yakov Billig, who is leading the excavations on behalf of the Israel Antiquities Authority. “This is a very rare find, because only very wealthy people could afford something like this.” The toilet is a comfortable (probably) limestone seat. Inside, as it should be, there is a hole. The seat was in a rectangular stall that served as a toilet, and underneath was a cesspool. In this toilet or bathroom there were also about 30 to 40 vessels, which most likely contained air fresheners of the time – pleasantly scented oils or fragrances. From the cesspool, archaeologists have extracted soil samples and numerous objects – from animal bones to fragments of pottery – from which they hope to learn more about the diet and lifestyle of ancient Jerusalem. And possibly about the diseases of the inhabitants of ancient Jerusalem. During the excavations, fragments of carved capitals of columns, window frames and fences were also found. Near the restroom, Billig and his colleagues discovered the remains of a nursery where ornamental and fruit trees, as well as aquatic plants, were grown. According to Billy, all of these items and architectural details indicate that this was a large and luxurious building. He does not rule out the possibility that it was even the palace of one of the rulers of the Kingdom of Judah. Ironically, the promenade around which the excavations are taking place is called Armon Khanatsiv – the Governor’s Palace. However, it was named much later when the British governor’s residence was located there.