In recent days, Russian authorities have made several alarming statements about the impending outbreak of the new Omicron strain, which they estimate will begin in the coming weeks and could be more widespread than any previous wave of the coronavirus.
Virologists say the new strain may indeed pose a threat to Russians, although it is considered less aggressive.
Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova announced on Wednesday that Russia will not be able to avoid a new surge in COVID-19 cases due to the “Omicron” variant.
Earlier, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Anna Popova, warned that the number of infections in the country could reach six figures in a single day for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.
President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with members of the government on Wednesday that “there are at least a few weeks” to prepare for the new wave of the pandemic.
Later, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stressed: “The number [of cases] will be very high, this is the specificity of this strain.”
Currently, 698 cases of “Omicron” have been detected in 13 regions of Russia.
According to Tatiana Golikova, the majority of these cases are currently in the Moscow region, which is likely to “bear the brunt of the spread of the new strain” first.
The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, also warned on Tuesday that the increase in the number of cases in the capital could begin in the next 7-10 days. “It is quite possible that we will face a more critical situation than in previous waves of infection,” he said.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin spoke about the worsening situation with the coronavirus – he called for “being ready for any development of events”.
At the end of December and during the New Year holidays, the headquarters recorded a decrease in the incidence of Covid-19 in Russia, and mortality in December 2021, as reported by Golikova, decreased by 16.4% compared to November. In October and November, coronavirus mortality in Russia reached record levels since the beginning of the pandemic.
In other countries, however, the number of coronavirus cases is rising sharply. The United States once again leads the world in the number of identified cases, with nearly 1.5 million new cases identified on 10 January (an absolute daily record for the entire pandemic).
At the same time, the increase in cases is not yet translating into a significant increase in mortality. In Europe, the situation is most tense in France (where 368,000 infected cases were detected the day before) and Germany (120,000 cases). In the context of the spread of Omicron, the number of hospitalizations is increasing: on January 9, more than 142,000 new patients were admitted to hospitals in the United States and 14,500 in France on the same day.
According to the WHO, within the next six to eight weeks, more than 50% of the population in European countries could be infected with the “Omikron” variant. “Omicron is spreading faster and further than any variant of SARS-CoV-2 we have seen,” warned Hans Kluge, Director of the WHO Regional Office for Europe.
Russian authorities have previously warned the population about the start of new waves of the coronavirus, but these forecasts were not as alarming as in the case of “Omicron”. Epidemiologists interviewed by the BBC say the Russian authorities’ concerns about the coming wave of coronavirus are fully justified, given the sharp rise in cases in Europe and the U.S. and the low vaccination rate in Russia.
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Episodes End of story Advertising Podcasts “The Russian authorities are taking into account what is happening in other countries. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the low mobility of the population during the New Year holidays, so it is expected to see a delayed effect – when people return to work and become more mobile,” says Timur Pesterev, a physician-epidemiologist at the Center for Molecular Diagnostics of the Research Institute of Epidemiology.
The rate of vaccination in Russia is still low – as of January 12, only 58.7% of the country’s adult population has been fully vaccinated. “The fewer vaccinated people there are in the country, the more room there is for the virus to spread. In Russia, just over half the population is vaccinated, which is obviously very low. Even in Portugal, where almost everyone is vaccinated, there is an increase in the incidence of disease,” argues Ilya Yasnaya, head of scientific expertise at the venture pharmaceutical fund Inbio Ventures.
“For those who are vaccinated, Omicron is less dangerous, as are other strains, but we have failed in the vaccination campaign, this is a fact: in some regions, the level of herd immunity is about 30% instead of the required 90%. And now we are going to pay for it,” laments Timur Pesterev.
To date, the lowest levels of herd immunity are recorded in Dagestan (30%), Karachay-Cherkessia (38%) and Kabardino-Balkaria (41%).
On Wednesday, WHO’s Director of Emergency Situations, Mike Ryan, said the “omicron” variant causes less severe illness on average in each individual, but still poses a risk to older people and those with underlying health conditions.
However, according to Ilya Yasnogo, the danger of the new strain should not be underestimated, given its increased contagiousness, as warned by the WHO. “Although the frequency of hospitalization is lower than with previous strains, because there are very, very many cases, the absolute number of hospitalized patients is still high, which still threatens to overwhelm the healthcare system,” he explains.
Statistics from European countries and the United States confirm that hospitalizations due to the new strain are indeed on the rise.
At the same time, there may be a political subtext in the rhetoric of the Russian authorities, who have decided to prepare the population in advance for a new, massive wave of the pandemic, speculates political scientist Abbas Gallyamov. “The situation in the standoff with the United States over NATO and Ukraine has clearly reached a deadlock, the threat of new Western sanctions is very serious, and now we need to find a way out of this situation. In this sense, the new wave of COVID-19 is simply a gift that allows people’s attention to shift from politics to healthcare,” the political scientist explains.