One of the symptoms of measles is a skin rash. Measles is a very contagious disease.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned that the number of measles cases in London could reach tens of thousands due to low vaccination rates. Mathematical calculations show that the outbreak can affect between 40,000 and 160,000 people. A higher level of vaccination in the rest of the UK means that the risk of a serious epidemic elsewhere is much lower. But the UKHSA said there was an “urgent” need to vaccinate children, teenagers and young adults.
Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage in the UK is at its lowest level in a decade, with around one in ten children unprotected by the time they start primary school. Vaccination also took a nosedive in the early 2000s when claims of a link between the combined MMR vaccine and autism became widespread. This theory has since been completely discredited, and the doctor who promoted it, Andrew Wakefield, has been struck off the medical register. But measles is one of the most infectious diseases known to science, and an increasing number of people lack sufficient immunity.
According to models by the UKHSA and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the number of measles cases in the British capital could reach tens of thousands. This is a theoretical risk. It does not mean that London is on the verge of a major measles outbreak. However, there have already been 128 cases registered this year, compared with 54 for the whole of 2022. The latest risk assessment suggests that the R number – you may remember it from the COVID days – is above or close to 1.0, which is the starting point for rapid spread of the disease. The projections are primarily for people between the ages of 19 and 25, who may have missed out on the necessary vaccinations during the peak of autism concerns. They may be the most vulnerable. University students are of particular concern because of their close interactions.
The UKHSA also states that a major outbreak could put additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS), with 20% to 40% of those infected requiring hospital care.
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“For every 1,000 children infected with measles, one or two will die,” said Professor Beate Kampmann, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who specializes in childhood infections and immunity. “To prevent deaths, severe cases and outbreaks in the population, 95% of the population needs to be vaccinated against this infection, but our current coverage is well below that threshold,” she noted.
Children in the UK should receive their first dose of MMR vaccine by their first birthday and their second dose by the time they are three and a half years old. This will protect them from measles for life and prevent the spread of the virus to others. Jane Clegg, NHS Regional Nursing Lead for London, said: “If you have any questions or concerns, seek advice from your doctor or local pharmacist. It is time to take action to protect yourself and your loved ones from measles.”