Has COVID mortality increased in Russia? Are more people dying only in India and Brazil?

More than 20,000 people died of coronavirus in Russia in June, according to Rosstat. In total, 185.6 thousand deaths were registered in the country this month, which is 23 thousand more than in May. In June, the death rate from COVID-19 was higher in the world only in Brazil and India.

The operational headquarters for the fight against the coronavirus provides different data: according to its information, 13,509 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded in June, as calculated by the BBC.

Rosstat, unlike the Operational Headquarters, divides the mortality from coronavirus into four groups:

As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, the overall mortality rate in Russia in June of this year increased by 14.1% compared to the same month last year. She explained this sharp increase in infections by the spread of the Indian strain “Delta”, which is considered much more contagious than the Wuhan strain (from which the pandemic began last year). This is in line with Rosstat data. From January to June, more than 1.1 million people died in Russia – 16% more than in the same period last year.

In June, Brazil and India continued to lead the world in the absolute number of coronavirus deaths. In Brazil, 55.2 thousand fatal cases were reported in a month, while in India – 67.5 thousand (data from Johns Hopkins University). These two countries surpassed Russia in the absolute number of coronavirus deaths. Brazil also surpassed Russia in terms of deaths per capita. But the situation has clearly changed in recent weeks: According to Johns Hopkins University, Russia has become the leader in the number of deaths per capita. This statistic is based on data from the operational headquarters. India has become the first country to be affected by the “Delta” variant. The first cases of the disease have been recorded in this country.

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Among the countries that have managed to drastically reduce mortality rates are Israel and Sweden. In June, 17 people died from COVID-19 in Israel, while in Sweden the number was 178 (according to Johns Hopkins University; the Swedish National Board of Health gives a different number – 83 deaths). Both countries are actively conducting mass vaccination of the population: according to Our World in Data, 62% of the population in Israel has received the full dose of the vaccine (another 4.8% are still waiting for the second dose), while in Sweden it is 44% (another 20% are still waiting for the second dose). Israeli authorities have reinstated restrictive measures following the emergence of the Delta strain. On July 16, Swedish national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said that although the Delta strain had entered the country, it had not affected the level of infection.

In the United Kingdom, the Covid-19 mortality rate has fallen significantly as a result of the extensive vaccination campaign. In June, 359 people died of the infection in the country, despite being one of the world leaders in Covid-19 mortality during the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. In the U.S., where about 100 thousand deaths were recorded in January, 10.3 thousand people died from COVID-19 in June. At the end of June, the White House announced that 70% of the country’s population had been vaccinated.

Comparing coronavirus mortality rates in different countries is not easy because of differences in counting methods. For example, Belgium included in its overall Covid-19 mortality statistics deaths in which coronavirus infection was at least suspected. As a result, Belgium’s data on coronavirus deaths are much higher than those of other countries.

Most countries include in their statistics all deceased persons with a positive coronavirus test. Not only patients who died from the coronavirus are counted, but also patients who had COVID-19 as a comorbidity. As explained on the portal “stopcoronavirus.rf”, in Russia not every citizen who is identified with Covid-19 by tests or post-mortem examinations is included in the lists of those who died from coronavirus. “Coronavirus infection can be diagnosed based on autopsy results even if the coronavirus test was negative. However, only those who had Covid-19 as the main cause of death are included in the statistics, not those with pre-existing chronic diseases that were aggravated during the infection. Thus, in Russia there is a distinction between “death from Covid-19” – referring to deceased individuals with posthumous diagnosis, who contribute to the statistics of coronavirus deaths, and “death with COVID-19″ – when there is a confirmed coronavirus infection, but death occurred due to another cause,” the statement said.

In most countries, coronavirus mortality tends to fluctuate – there may be a sharp increase on some days and an equally sharp decrease on others. According to official statistics, there have been no sudden spikes in the number of cases in Russia over the past three months, and the number of infected people has increased or decreased by only a few people each day.

The head of the Ministry of Health, Mikhail Murashko, announced yesterday that 38.9 million people in Russia have been vaccinated against coronavirus (about 27.7% of the country’s population). The official did not specify whether this refers to the full vaccination cycle or includes those who have received only the first component of the vaccine. According to unofficial statistics on the website govgov.ru, to date 38.3 million people in Russia (26.2% of the population) have been vaccinated with at least one component of the vaccine, and 27.4 million (18.8% of the population) have been fully vaccinated. According to the Russian Ministry of Health, vaccination rates in the country have slowed: in the past two weeks, the number of people vaccinated has increased by 11.5%, compared to nearly 25% in the previous period. Vaccination in Russia has slowed following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, particularly in Moscow and the Moscow region, where QR codes for restaurants and cafes have been removed. Muraszko assured that there are no problems with access to vaccines in Russia. Meanwhile, in Moscow, supplies of “Covivac” and “Epivaccorona” vaccines have run out several times in the past two months, and the only vaccine available has been “Sputnik V”. Shortages of “Covivac” and “Epivaccorona” have also been observed in St. Petersburg. The vaccination campaign in Russia is progressing slowly, not only because of the lack or absence of vaccine choices, but also because of citizens’ distrust of vaccines. According to a survey by VCIOM published on June 10, only slightly more than half of respondents (55%) expressed a desire to receive the Russian coronavirus vaccine, and only 17% of them said they had done so. Nearly half, 42%, of respondents said they would not get the vaccine. Among the “refuseniks,” the most popular reasons are the lack of research on the vaccine and fear of its side effects.