The President and Prime Minister simply added up those who received the first and both components of the vaccine. This is a mistake. The Prime Minister of Russia, while delivering a report to the State Duma, stated that “various stages of vaccination” against COVID-19 have already been completed by about 24 million people. Two days earlier, the President of Russia said that 21.5 million Russians had “already been vaccinated”. Both were incorrect, but were corrected by Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova.
“That’s 24 million visits, which means 24 million doses of vaccine used. We have more than 14 million (vaccinated) with the first component and, in my opinion, almost 10 [million] with two components,” Golikova told journalists.
The mistake made by both the President and the Prime Minister lies in the mechanical compilation of data. All three vaccines introduced into circulation in Russia are two-component, but the overwhelming majority of all COVID vaccinations are carried out with “Sputnik V”.
Statistics collected by the portal gogov.ru show that by Wednesday, May 12, 13,566,658 people had received at least one shot, and 9,009,287 people had received both shots. The site collects data published by Russian regions. Several regions provide data with significant delays, and Moscow has not provided any new data since mid-April, freezing at a figure of 1 million people vaccinated (analysis of these figures can be found here).
But two groups – those who received the vaccine for the first time and those who are fully vaccinated – overlap rather than complement each other. Taking into account the margin of error in the data provided, the situation is as follows: 13.5 million people have been vaccinated, 9 million have received both doses, and 4.5 million have yet to receive the second dose. And even if we assume that some protection against the coronavirus occurs after the first vaccination, it is incorrect to operate in reports on the total number of injections administered to those who have been vaccinated.
“Both of them confused injections with individuals,” summarizes Viktor Kabanov, who analyzes available data on vaccination and vaccine production in the Watching COVID-2019.ru group.
Golikova is more precise with the data. In her May 6 speech, she divided all citizens who came to vaccination sites into those who received the first dose (13.4 million) and those who completed the vaccination course (9.4 million). Golikova spoke three days before Putin, and the total number of vaccinations in her statement (22.8 million) was somehow 1.3 million higher than the president’s figures.
The Russian authorities are tempted to make the COVID-19 campaign appear more successful. Having announced the start of vaccination almost six months ago, Russia is currently in the second group of countries in terms of the number of people vaccinated with at least one component of the vaccine, well behind countries such as Brazil, whose population exceeds Russia’s by more than a third.
So far, according to the open data of Russian regions, despite the growing calls for vaccination, its rate is not increasing – on average, 270 to 300 thousand vaccinations are performed every day, and during the long weekends in May this figure fell even lower. At this rate, the threshold of 60% vaccination of adult Russians, conditionally defined as the threshold of herd immunity, will be exceeded only in a year and a half.
In terms of vaccination rates, Russia is in the second group of countries. We explain quickly, simply, and clearly what happened, why it matters, and what will happen next. The number of offers should remain: episodes. End of story Podcast advertising Prolonged vaccination may lead to the emergence of new strains of coronaviruses in the population that evade the protection provided by vaccines, which may require repeated vaccination with drugs modified to incorporate new strains. With such a low vaccination rate, Russian officials’ statements about achieving herd immunity sound extremely optimistic.
On Wednesday, May 12, Tatiana Golikova said that this threshold would be reached by the fall. On May 9, Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko told Interfax correspondents that this indicator would be reached in September. Mikhail Mishustin, speaking in the State Duma, was more cautious, saying that the population’s immunity should be reached by the end of this year. Previously, Russian officials had promised to reach this threshold in the spring and mid-summer.
A separate explanation is needed for the difference in the total number of vaccinations claimed by the president and the prime minister and their deputy. If we assume that both Putin (21.5 million in the statement of May 9) and Mishustin/Golikova (about 24 million in the statement of May 12) are correct, then it turns out that in three or four days, half of which were weekends, 2.5 million injections were administered in Russia. This is well above the normal pace of vaccination. “The figures given by the president are accurate, and the figures from Mishustin are also accurate,” presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov replied when asked about the comparability of the figures. “It is impossible to get nationwide figures online to account for every single person. In the report from the (government) headquarters, there is a certain inertia when it comes to updates.”