A major wave of Omicron coronavirus infections could hit the UK by January unless restrictions are imposed, scientists warn. According to their estimates, by the end of April, the number of deaths may range from 25 to 75 thousand, depending on the effectiveness of vaccines. The study was conducted by an influential group of epidemic modeling specialists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), which advises the British government. But even they cannot make a definitive prediction.
Experts suggest different most likely scenarios for how events will unfold, and much will depend on the effectiveness of booster vaccinations. On Saturday, 633 new cases of the “Omikron” variant infection were detected in the UK, although the actual number of infected individuals may be much higher. Even if the new variant of the coronavirus turns out to be milder than previous ones, as preliminary data from South Africa, where “Omicron” is most likely to have emerged, suggests, experts predict a new wave of infections and many people will end up in hospitals.
According to one of the authors of the study, Dr. Nick Davis, “Omicron” is spreading very quickly, which is a serious concern, and it is not impossible that this variant will become dominant in England by the end of the year. According to the report, the number of infected people in England is doubling every two and a half days, and despite a very high vaccination rate, infection rates are higher than with the original variant of the virus, when no one had immunity.
In the most optimistic scenario, assuming that the “Omikron” virus has a so-called low immune escape (ability to evade detection and attack by the human immune system) and booster vaccinations are highly effective, the projected number of cases in England from December 1 to April 30 will be: [The number of offers should remain]. The most pessimistic scenario with high immune escape and low effectiveness of additional vaccinations is predicted for the same period in England.
Although scientists have included the possibility of implementing strict restrictions in their projections, Dr. Davis suggests not rushing to make decisions because such restrictions, he says, can affect people’s moral and physical well-being “in the most terrible ways. We explain quickly, simply, and clearly what happened, why it matters, and what happens next. Episodes End of story Advertising Podcasts “In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron should be reduced by early 2022 through soft measures such as remote working,” said one of the study’s authors, Dr. Rosanna Barnard. “However, the most pessimistic scenario suggests that strict measures may be necessary to avoid excessive strain on the healthcare system. Wearing masks, social distancing and booster vaccinations are essential, but may not be enough”.
“No one wants a new lockdown, but if Omicron turns out to have a high level of immune escape or increased virulence compared to Delta, extreme measures may be needed to protect the healthcare system,” Dr. Barnard continued. The biggest question is whether vaccines and booster shots can protect people from being hospitalized. Preliminary evidence-based research suggests that two doses of the vaccine provide limited protection against the development of Omicron” symptoms, while a booster dose increases protection to 75%. In their research, the LHSTM specialists assume that the disease will be milder if you are fully vaccinated, and take into account the recently introduced government plan “B”. In the best case scenario, daily hospital admissions will be 40% lower than last year’s winter peak. In the worst case, it will be twice as high.
In January 2021, at the peak of the coronavirus wave, the average number of new infections in Britain was 60 thousand per week, and the daily death toll exceeded 1200 cases. Earlier, Eleanor Riley, professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, noted that “unless you are living a hermit’s life,” you are likely to come into contact with a carrier of Omicron in the coming weeks as it spreads rapidly. And even considering that Omicron is considered a relatively mild virus, the scale of the infection itself could mean that many people will end up in hospital.