In the Tehran metro. Experts warn that public transportation is one of the main breeding grounds for the virus. In recent weeks, coronavirus infection statistics in Iran have risen sharply, and international experts are concerned that this may be a sign of a second wave of the epidemic.
The WHO notes that many countries have prematurely abandoned restrictive quarantine measures, putting lives at risk. The same situation has occurred in the United States, Moldova, South Korea, Pakistan and North Macedonia: in all these countries, the number of Covid-19 cases began to rise again after the quarantine measures were relaxed.
Russia, which ranks third in the world in the number of infected people (already over half a million), has also begun a gradual exit from quarantine. In Moscow, the self-isolation regime and passports have been lifted since June 16, but the wearing of masks remains mandatory. Most institutions have returned to work. Mass events are still banned. Is it too early for some countries to begin lifting restrictive measures? WHO urges governments and their advisers to consider this question.
Iran is the hardest hit country in the Middle East and one of the first epicenters of infection. The first cases of the disease were reported there shortly after the situation in China began to cause concern. Russia stopped issuing visas to Iranian citizens on February 28. Initially, the Iranian authorities did not intend to impose a quarantine in any region of the country, but as the situation worsened by the day, they were forced to resort to a lockdown. In mid-April, the restrictive measures in Iran began to be eased, and by early June, the daily number of infected people had consistently exceeded 3,000.
According to official data, in the first week of June, the Covid-19 statistics increased by 50% compared to the last week of May and exceeded the indicators at the end of March, when the country experienced a peak of infections. In other words, the situation in Iran is worse now than it was at the height of the epidemic. What has led to this?
At first, the Iranian government refused to close mosques and places of worship in the holy city of Qom, which is sacred to Muslims. When they finally did, the daily number of infected people dropped to less than 1,000, and the authorities decided it was time to return to normal life. Public transportation, banks, and offices immediately became very crowded. At the same time, in Iranian culture, as in the culture of other Middle Eastern peoples (and not only), there is no habit of respecting personal space, and social distancing does not occur. The situation was similar in other countries. “In Moldova, the state of emergency was lifted on May 15, and just a week later, public transportation was fully restored except on weekends, and markets were allowed to reopen in most parts of the country. After that, the infection and mortality rates began to rise. I think the main role was played by overcrowded transportation: people returned to work, visited relatives, and went to cemeteries on memorial days,” says Natalia Glotova, a journalist from Moldova.
At the end of May, markets opened in Moldova’s major cities, and hundreds of residents from neighboring districts flocked to them. Weekly statistics for the spread of coronavirus are increasing significantly in 21 U.S. states: California, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico and other areas in the Southwest. The state of emergency has been reinstated in Arizona hospitals. On June 4, the North Macedonian authorities reimposed a curfew in several cities of the country. Covid-19 infection rates in Pakistan have reached record levels as the country rapidly emerges from lockdown. BBC correspondent Ilyas Khan reports from Islamabad that the markings that defined a two-metre distance have disappeared from shops and institutions. The guards who used to ensure that buildings did not attract large numbers of visitors have also disappeared. The authorities’ order to maintain social distance is there, but it is not being followed.
In Iran, they agree that the lifting of quarantine means close social contact between people, but they do not consider it the real cause of the increase in statistics. According to the country’s chief epidemiologist, Mohammad-Mehdi Gouya, the number of cases has statistically increased because more tests are being conducted, and in particular, infected individuals with mild symptoms and even asymptomatic cases are being identified. Currently, one out of every 79 people in Iran is undergoing testing, down from one out of every 380 two months ago. Therefore, the authorities do not consider the lifting of the lockdown as the main reason for the increase in indicators. Moreover, they say, the daily number of deaths remains the same as in mid-April – less than 100 people per day. At the same time, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has not ruled out reintroducing tough measures if the situation continues to deteriorate. However, experts say he is unlikely to take such a step, given the dire state of the Iranian economy, which is under U.S. sanctions.
According to economists, some countries will indeed deny the second wave of the epidemic until the very end, simply because they cannot afford a lockdown. Moldovan Prime Minister Ion Chicu stated directly that the government simply does not have the resources to continue supporting the population and businesses. “Without a gradual resumption of economic activity, the country would have experienced a financial collapse. Depriving people of salaries and pensions would have had a much worse impact, including on the health of citizens. We can no longer prohibit economic activity, we cannot leave people without a means of livelihood. Therefore, all types of economic activity will resume by June 30,” the Moldovan prime minister wrote on his Facebook page. In Pakistan, the same argument is made: in the midst of general poverty, a prolonged closure will lead to total impoverishment.
Every country wants to return to normal life as soon as possible, but in some cases it is a matter of survival. “If our authorities do not save at least part of the tourist season, we will be in a very deep crisis. This industry mainly feeds the country. For ordinary people it will be terrible – services and products will become more expensive. But tourism will not recover quickly, it will take at least another season or even two to fully recover,” says Olga Aspru, a resident of Cyprus and an employee of the financial company SW Management.
On June 8, the first flights from Greece and Israel arrived in Cyprus, but this is not enough to save the island’s tourism industry. At the same time, Olga believes that if the premature lifting of restrictions leads to a second wave of the epidemic, the Cypriot government will not be able to rely on it: “The first time the authorities did not let us starve, they still supported us with payments and subsidies. But God forbid, if a second wave comes, no one will help us, there will be nothing left. Countries like Cyprus, Greece, Croatia and Bulgaria are directly dependent on how quickly the quarantine measures are lifted. The tourist season there was supposed to be in full swing by the end of April. We explain quickly, simply, and clearly what happened, why it matters, and what happens next. The number of offers should remain: episodes. End of story. Podcast Advertising.
“Even if we are ready to receive guests, not everything depends on us. Who will travel if they have to spend two weeks in isolation when they return home? Who has such a long vacation? Postponing the season is a risk for the economy, and lifting the quarantine prematurely is a risk for health. We are ready to comply with all sanitary norms, but we do not want our hotels to look like hospitals,” a source in the Greek Ministry of Tourism told the Russian service of the BBC.
Many ordinary citizens in these countries who have been left without work are not alarmed by the threat of a second wave. “Cypriots need to socialize, they cannot stay at home, going to cafes by the sea in the evening is a way of life. No one in my circle wants to hide anymore, they say – how much longer can we do this?” says Olga Aspru. But Andrea Ammon, director of the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is urging Europeans, including those with a good track record in fighting the coronavirus, not to lose hope and to be patient.
The head of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Andrea Ammon, believes that the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic is inevitable. “If we look at the characteristics of the virus, if we look at what is happening in different countries in terms of population immunity, we will see that immunity has only appeared in 2-14% of the population in these 4-5 months, 85-90% are still not protected. I don’t want to paint a doomsday scenario, but I think we should be realists. Now is not the time to relax completely,” Ammon said in an interview with the British Guardian. According to them, it’s no longer a question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic or not. The question is: how soon and how strong will it be?