Scientists are warning that the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic expected this coming winter could claim around 120,000 lives in the UK alone. But the risk can be reduced if action is taken now.
To date, approximately 45,000 people in the UK have died from Covid-19. This is more than in any other European country. Recently, the negative trend has slowed: in the first half of July, 1,100 people died of the disease. At the height of the coronavirus epidemic in the UK, hundreds of people were dying every day.
Scientists have developed a mathematical model for the worst-case scenario of the situation that could unfold next winter. According to the data obtained, between 24.5 and 251 thousand people will die from the virus or its complications in hospitals alone. The peak of the infection will occur in January and February. The assessment of the situation was made without taking into account such mitigating factors as quarantine, the development of an effective drug or vaccine, if they can be developed by then.
A report commissioned by the UK government’s chief scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, stresses that it is currently difficult to predict how the pandemic will develop during the winter. Typically, viruses live longer in low temperatures and spread faster as people spend more time indoors. A small advantage in the situation with Covid-19 is that the world will enter the winter having already developed certain rules of behavior and protective measures. However, it should not be forgotten, as the authors of the report write, that in addition, other viruses, such as influenza, become more active in the winter period. Therefore, the burden on the health care system will be immense.
At the same time, the U.K.’s National Health Service (NHS) is dealing with patients whose appointments, procedures and scheduled surgeries have been postponed because of the ongoing pandemic. By the end of the year, there will be approximately 10 million such patients.
The day before, Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited one of the ambulance stations in London. The government promises to take all the health workers’ comments into account in preparing for the second wave of the epidemic. The good news, says Professor Stephen Holgate, a respiratory specialist at the University of Southampton, is that the conclusions of the report’s authors are only a probable development of the situation and not something inevitable. “Now that the statistics are dropping, it is the perfect time to prepare for the tricks of the coming winter. We need to take advantage of this window of opportunity,” says Holgate.
UK Health Minister Matthew Hancock said that all precautionary measures are already being taken, taking into account the latest scientific forecasts. “We remain vigilant and the government will provide all necessary resources to avoid a second spike, which would have a severe impact on our NHS,” the government statement said.
There are also less pessimistic scenarios that assume the existence of a vaccine or an effective drug against COVID-19: according to these predictions, the death toll will still be in the thousands.